SpaceX IPO: The Trillion Dollar Rocket Ride You Don't Actually Control

We’ve been hearing about a lot of companies going public in the news lately, from the duel between Anthropic and OpenAI to now, SpaceX. As much as I would like to, this isn’t a fanboy breakdown of why Mars is cool, but rather a look into what SpaceX actually is, why it is going public, and what you’re really getting as a shareholder.

So what is SpaceX & how does it make money?

SpaceX started as a rocket startup that might blow up on the pad, but has now transitioned into the default logistics provider to low Earth orbit and a critical piece of US and allied space infrastructure.

It mainly does 3 things:

1. Launch Services

Revenue comes from contracts that involve launching satellites for governments, commercial customers, and internal missions like Starlink.

2. Starlink Satellite Internet

• A global network of thousands of satellites that provide internet access almost anywhere on Earth.

• Revenue comes from customers paying monthly subscription fees, plus hardware sales (dishes/routers).

• The customer base ranges from rural households and remote businesses to ships, aircraft, and government users.

3. Emerging Platforms

• Starship development, deep-space missions, and potential Mars projects.

• Strategic infrastructure could underpin defense, communications, and even AI/data centre uses in the long run.

• Today, much of this is investment and optionality rather than mature, cash-generating businesses.

Why is SpaceX going public now?

The short answer is: the bill is due.

All the cool stuff you see on X, such as Starship launches, Starlink satellites, and AI/data centre initiatives, burns cash at a ridiculous rate. SpaceX has grown revenue into the tens of billions, but it is still running multi-billion-dollar losses as it scales Starlink and pours money into Starship and infrastructure.

They are not going public because they feel like sharing the upside. They are going public because:

• The next phase of more satellites, more launch pads, Mars-adjacent projects, AI data centres, chip infrastructure, and energy infrastructure requires hundreds of billions.

• Right now, public markets are willing to pay for anything that sounds like AI + infrastructure + space with Elon leading.

This is one of the rare moments in human history where you can say, "We lose money but might be the backbone of the orbital economy," and realistically ask for tens of billions in fresh capital.

How much of SpaceX are you actually getting?

Here’s the part people skip on TikTok.

At a rumored valuation of between $1.8–2 trillion and a raise in the tens of billions, SpaceX is only selling a low-single-digit percentage of the company in a secondary offering of approximately 2–5%. This is tiny, but it is still a huge amount of cash for SpaceX.

Governance: Elon’s company, your risk

SpaceX uses a dual-class share structure:

• You: Class A shares, 1 vote each

• Insiders: Super-voting shares, 10 votes each

This means Elon can keep voting control even without owning a majority of the economic stake, as he effectively decides who sits on the board and where the company goes. Public shareholders have almost no realistic way to change leadership or strategy. Shareholders simply get exposure to the upside while having no say in the company’s direction.

How insiders and early employees are treated

Now flip the camera for a second. Imagine you’re not a student buying your first few shares, but an engineer who joined SpaceX years ago with a pile of private stock.

SpaceX’s IPO is built to make your life more comfortable:

• Around 5% of the IPO shares are being set aside for selected employees and friends-and-family-style buyers, and those shares are exempt from the usual post-IPO lockup.

• On top of that, SpaceX is using a phased lockup instead of a simple "no one sells for six months" rule. Certain insiders can start selling a slice of their stock shortly after the first earnings report, with more shares unlocking in waves over the following months.

Elon himself is typically on stricter terms, and some large investors face longer restrictions, but the direction of travel is obvious. The structure was written by people who wanted to take care of insiders first and let retail investors figure it out later.

The Bull Case: Why people will still line up

Given all of this, why will investors still show up? Because the underlying business is genuinely impressive.

Here’s the streamlined bull case (best-case scenario):

Serious revenue growth

• SpaceX disclosed about $18.6 billion of revenue in 2025, up roughly a third from the year before, with first-quarter 2026 revenue still growing at double digits YoY, which is very strong for a hardware-heavy company.

Starlink is becoming the engine

• Starlink is already responsible for the majority of revenue, accounting for between 50–80% of total sales as it scales to millions of users. This is becoming a satellite internet business with rockets attached, not the other way around.

Launch dominance and Starship optionality

• SpaceX already dominates commercial launch and key government missions, and if Starship works at scale, it could further crush launch costs and lock in its lead.

• That builds a moat competitors will struggle to cross without burning cash.

Platform potential

• If you zoom out, you're not just buying launches and internet access.

• You’re buying a shot at becoming the critical infrastructure layer for satellites, defense, communications, and even AI and compute in orbit over the next few decades.

If all of the vision plays out, paying up at IPO might look less insane in hindsight. The bull case isn’t that the numbers look good today; rather, it’s that SpaceX ends up owning such a strategic position that today’s price could become a bargain compared to where it could go.

The Bear Case: Amazing company, harsh entry price

Valuation vs Fundamentals

• SpaceX is targeting an IPO valuation in the $1.75–1.8 trillion range while raising $50–80 billion, which would make it the largest IPO in history.

• Some independent analyses put the "fair value" closer to $1.25 trillion, implying the IPO could be asking you to overpay by around 30% on day one.

Still burning cash overall

• Despite strong top-line growth and healthy EBITDA, filings and analyses show the company still posted roughly a $5 billion net loss in 2025 and remains heavily cash-hungry thanks to Starship and Starlink capex.

• This is not a steady compounding machine yet.

Governance that locks you out

• Musk will control 85% of the voting power after the IPO thanks to the dual-class structure.

• SpaceX will qualify as a "controlled company," exempt from some standard governance safeguards.

• Shareholder rights are deliberately weak, which is fine until you disagree with how the company is being run.

Conclusion

For students, this IPO is kind of like clubbing: technically you’re allowed in, but the real VIP section is reserved for people who got here years ago and already know the bouncers.

Insiders get early liquidity, Elon gets control, and you get a tiny slice of the story and a front-row seat to the volatility.

That doesn’t make it uninvestable. It just means you should treat it for what it really is: a very shiny, loud, and expensive speculation. If you buy, buy knowing you’re paying for the ride, not for the steering wheel.

References

Council of Institutional Investors (2026) Letter to SpaceX regarding IPO governance and shareholder rights. June 2026.

Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance (2026) Even Musk Admirers Should Be Troubled by SpaceX’s Governance. June 2026. Available at: https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/ (Accessed: 16 June 2026).

NASA (n.d.) Human Landing Systems Development. Available at: https://www.nasa.gov/ (Accessed: 16 June 2026).

Reuters (2026a) From Meta to SpaceX: How Dual-Class Shares Keep Founders in Control. Reuters, May 2026.

Reuters (2026b) SpaceX by the Numbers: Six Charts Map Businesses Behind the Largest-Ever IPO. Reuters, June 2026.

Reuters (2026c) SpaceX Targets $1.75 Trillion Valuation in All-Primary IPO Next Week, Sources Say. Reuters, June 2026.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (2026) Form S-1 Registration Statement. Washington, DC: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Via Satellite and BryceTech (2026) BryceTech Report Shows SpaceX Accounted for 50% of Launches in 2025. April 2026.